Introduction
India’s population is estimated to reach around 1.5 billion by 2100, double that of China, as per the biennial World Population Prospects (WPP) released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA). As per the report, the countries with the largest populations will be India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the United States.
World Population Prospects (WPP)
WPP is a biennial (i.e., occurring every two years) report released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) since 1951. The report estimates and assesses hypothetical population trends based on the analysis of the current number of people by age, migration, fertility, and mortality rates.
The report presents key demographic indicators for each income group, development group, major region, and country for the selected period of 1950-2100. It gives estimates for around 237 countries and territories. The latest 2024 edition is the twenty-eighth edition since the initiative’s inception.
What does the latest edition say about India?
According to the WPP 2024 report, India’s current population is estimated to have reached 1.451 billion (145 crore), almost 9 million more than the previous estimation. These projections are the most authoritative estimates for India, as no census was conducted after the 2011 census. The 2020 census was first postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and was later postponed again due to undisclosed reasons.
By 2100, the country is expected to reach 1.5 billion, double that of China ( 633 million). Even though India’s fertility rate has dropped below the replacement levels (2.1) to 1.962, the population of the country is expected to hit the inflexion point in 2085. In that year, India’s population is projected to reach 1.61 billion, while China’s will be around 806 million. India will continue to remain the most populous country in the world.
India and the world
As per the WPP 2024 report, the world population is expected to leak at 10.29 billion in 2084 compared to the previous estimate of 10.43 billion in 2086 published in the 2022 report. Also, a global reduction is expected in 2100 to 10.2 billion. The WPP 2024 reports suggest an 80% probability of the world population peaking in the current century compared to the previous estimates of 30% probability that were made a decade ago.
India will lead the population charts as the most populous country in the world in 2100 with China in the second position followed by Pakistan (511 million), Nigeria (477 million), the Democratic Republic of Congo (431 million), and the United States (421 million). In countries like China, the population decline observed is chiefly due to a lowering fertility rate whereas the increase in population of African nations will be due to an increase in the number of births over the years.
While the overall population of Asia, Africa, and Latin America will decrease, a significant rise will be observed in North America and Europe, causing a demographic shift in the world. Unlike the countries mentioned above, the United States of America, along with 62 other countries, will observe a significant rise mainly due to an increase in the number of people immigrating to the country from other regions.
What can we infer from the report?
As per the WPP report, India’s main aim should be exploiting the demographic dividend of the country’s population within a limited period. As of 2024, the current median age of India is 28.4 years, which falls under the working age section, meanwhile, the current median age of China and the US is 39.6 years and 38.3 years respectively. By 2100, India’s median age will be 47.8 years, compared to 60.7 years for China and 45.3 years for the United States.
The number of working-age people in India is expected to reach 1,027 million by 2049. WPP says, “In about 100 countries or areas, the working-age population (between 20 and 64 years) will grow through 2054, offering a window of opportunity known as the demographic dividend. To capitalise on this opportunity, countries must invest in education, health, and infrastructure, and implement reforms to create jobs and improve government efficiency.”
The reason for the peak in India’s working-age population before the overall population is due to the drop in the country’s fertility rate below the replacement levels. Fertility rate is defined as the number of children a woman has in her lifetime.
Past population control policies in India
Various national and state-level policies have been introduced over the years for population growth control. Some of them are as follows:
- During 1951-1961, family planning was introduced for control. The National Family Planning Programme was launched in 1952.
- Later, this policy was made more target-oriented and a separate Department of Family Welfare was established.
- In 1977, a new policy for population control was launched which included voluntary sterilisation, education about the topic, and monetary incentives for sterilisation and tubectomy.
- In 2000, the National Population Policy aimed to achieve zero population growth by 2045 by reducing infant and maternal mortality rates, birth rates, and total fertility rates.
- In 2019, a population control bill was proposed but was later withdrawn in 2022.
- Some states have introduced two-child norms for government employees or those seeking advantages of government subsidies.
- A bill was proposed in Uttar Pradesh in 2021, barring individuals with more than two children from gaining the benefits of government subsidies.
Conclusion
Amid the global decline in population, India will be the most populous nation in the world. But, this large number has created a demographic dividend, with the median age of India being 28.4 years, i.e. the majority of people are of working age. Hence, the government should utilise this limited time window to exploit the available human resources to invest in education, healthcare, and infrastructure and create jobs for the people with the target of making India one of the most developed nations of the world.
-SHIVANGI NAIR
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