LA NIÑA EFFECT BRINGS KASHMIR TO A STANDSTILL: EXTREME COLD WAVE HITS REGION

Introduction

Kashmir, a region nestled in the Himalayas, is currently reeling under the grip of an intense cold wave. The La Niña effect, a natural climate phenomenon characterized by the cooling of ocean waters in the eastern Pacific, has brought extreme weather conditions to the region. As a result, Srinagar, the summer capital of Jammu and Kashmir, recorded its coldest night in years, with temperatures plummeting to minus 6 degrees Celsius.

The La Niña effect has far-reaching implications for Kashmir’s weather patterns, leading to increased snowfall and colder temperatures. This phenomenon occurs every 2-7 years and has become a recurring theme in Kashmir’s climate narrative. The region’s unique geography, with towering mountains and valleys, amplifies the Effect, making winters increasingly harsh. The impact is multifaceted, affecting daily life, agriculture, and tourism.

As the region struggles to cope with the extreme cold, authorities grapple with the challenges of providing essential services and ensuring public safety. The La Niña effect serves as a stark reminder of Kashmir’s vulnerability to climate change. The region’s resilience is being tested as global temperatures continue to rise. This article explores the impact of La Niña on Kashmir, examining its effects on weather patterns, daily life, and the economy.

La Niña Effect Brings Kashmir to a Standstill

La Niña Effect on Kashmir is multifaceted, affecting the region’s climate, economy, and daily life. The phenomenon brings extreme weather conditions, disrupting normal weather patterns and leading to intense storms in some areas and droughts in others.

Srinagar has just experienced its coldest night this winter, with temperatures plummeting to -6.2 degrees Celsius. The intense chill has spread across the valley, with other areas recording equally low temperatures. Sonamarg, for instance, dropped to -9.0 degrees Celsius, while Pulwama and Anantnag recorded -9.5 degrees Celsius and -9.9 degrees Celsius, respectively. Shopian was the coldest area in the valley at -10.0 degrees Celsius, and Zojila experienced a staggering low of -24.0 degrees Celsius.

Tourist resorts like Pahalgam, Qazigund, and Gulmarg also felt the chill, with temperatures ranging from -6.0 degrees Celsius to -8.2 degrees Celsius. In contrast, Jammu city recorded a relatively warm 6.9 degrees Celsius, but other areas like Banihal and Padder in Kishtwar experienced colder temperatures, ranging from -3.8 degrees Celsius to -8.5 degrees Celsius.

The cold wave has even extended to Ladakh, where conditions are harsher. Leh recorded -11.8°C and Kargil experienced a frigid -13.8°C. As the severe cold wave persists, residents of the region are bracing themselves for even colder nights ahead.

The government has deployed emergency services, healthcare, and relief efforts to mitigate the La Niña Effect. However, the region’s vulnerability to climate change is a pressing concern. La Niña’s impact highlights the need for sustainable development strategies, including renewable energy, agriculture, and water management. The region’s resilience to climate uncertainty requires proactive measures, including international cooperation and community-based adaptation initiatives.

Understanding La Niña Effect 

La Niña, a phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), occurs when the region of the Pacific Ocean between Indonesia and South America is cooler than usual. Its counterpart, El Niño, represents a warming of the same region. These two phases significantly influence global atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. 

During La Niña years, India receives normal or above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season. Yet the same phenomenon causes droughts in Africa and intensifies hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean. Conversely, the El Niño brings extreme summers and droughts in India while increasing rainfall in the southern United States.

The Climate Prediction Center predicted a 59% chance of the La Niña Effect emerging between November 2024 and January 2025, with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions likely by March to May 2025. FEWS NET scientists also expect La Niña to develop in late 2024, alongside above-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans.

This winter, southern India is experiencing unusually cold temperatures, while north India is witnessing a delayed winter with above-normal temperatures. Some attribute this to the La Niña Effect, but current ONI values suggest otherwise.

Impact of La Niña

La Niña’s impact on Kashmir is multifaceted, affecting the region’s climate, economy, and daily life. Historically, the La Niña Effect has formed during the monsoon or pre-monsoon period, but only twice between October and December since 1950. This natural climate phenomenon brings extreme weather conditions to Kashmir, including record-low temperatures, heavy snowfall, and avalanches.

La Niña’s climate impacts on Kashmir are significant. The region typically experiences colder winters during La Niña years, with Srinagar recording its coldest night in years. The upper reaches, including Gulmarg, Pahalgam, and Sonamarg, witness snowfall, while the plains remain snow-free. This has substantial economic implications, particularly for tourism, which has seen a decline in footfall and revenue.

La Niña’s economic effects on Kashmir are also noteworthy. The region’s agriculture sector is affected, with winter crops like apples and cherries being damaged. Additionally, the decline in tourism revenue impacts local businesses and livelihoods. However, the La Niña Effect can bring relief from high heat during the summer months if it persists into 2025.

La Niña’s social and humanitarian impacts are equally important. The region’s vulnerability to climate change is a pressing concern. La Niña’s influence on weather patterns can lead to displacement and migration due to agricultural droughts. Health concerns, such as increased risk of wildfires, respiratory issues, and mental health concerns, also arise during La Niña years.

Climate Patterns and Predictions

La Niña’s impact on Kashmir’s climate is significant, bringing extreme weather conditions including record-low temperatures, heavy snowfall, and avalanches. This natural climate phenomenon typically occurs during the monsoon or pre-monsoon period, but its formation between October and December is rare, happening only twice since 1950. As a result, Kashmir experiences colder winters, with Srinagar recording its coldest night in years.

Temperature fluctuations in Kashmir during the La Niña Effect are substantial, affecting agriculture and tourism. The upper reaches receive snowfall, while the plains remain snow-free, impacting local businesses and livelihoods. La Niña’s influence on weather patterns can lead to displacement and migration due to agricultural droughts, exacerbating health concerns such as respiratory issues and mental health concerns.

Current predictions suggest a 57% chance of La Niña formation in 2024, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). However, climate model uncertainties arise from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and regional variations, impacting local communities and ecosystems. Understanding La Niña’s impacts is crucial for developing effective adaptation strategies to support Kashmir’s vulnerable populations.

La Niña’s long-term implications highlight Kashmir’s vulnerability to climate change. Effective adaptation strategies require proactive measures, including enhanced climate monitoring, international cooperation, and community-based initiatives.

Preparations and Response

Power outages due to low hydel power generation have exacerbated the difficulties faced by the people in Kashmir. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has raised the issue of securing additional power supplies for Kashmir in winter with central leaders to meet the region’s energy needs.

Doctors have also cautioned residents to stay warm, as the steep drop in temperatures increases the risk of heart attacks. In Kashmir, people are resorting to traditional means of heating, such as the kangri—an earthen pot filled with burning coal and artfully covered with wicker—and hammams, which involve burning small pieces of wood under stone floors in a room. The smoke is vented through chimneys that open onto the roof and extend down the walls from the base.

Preparing for La Niña’s impact on Kashmir requires enhanced climate monitoring, early warning systems, and emergency preparedness. Improved weather forecasting systems and monitoring networks enable prediction of extreme weather events. Establishing early warning systems and emergency response plans, including evacuation procedures and relief distribution, ensures timely response. Strengthening infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and buildings, and educating local communities on La Niña’s impacts and preparedness measures are crucial.

Future Implications

• Climate Change Vulnerability: Kashmir’s vulnerability to climate change is a pressing concern. La Niña’s influence on weather patterns exacerbates existing climate challenges, including rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events. This vulnerability has significant implications for the region’s ecosystems, agriculture, and human settlements.

• Water Scarcity and Management: La Niña’s impact on Kashmir’s water resources is critical. Changes in precipitation patterns and glacier melting affect water availability, leading to scarcity and management challenges. Effective water management strategies, including conservation, efficient use, and infrastructure development, are essential to mitigate these impacts.

•  Economic and Social Impacts: La Niña’s economic and social implications for Kashmir are far-reaching. Climate-related disasters, agriculture losses, and tourism decline affect local economies and livelihoods. Social implications include displacement, migration, and mental health concerns. Addressing these challenges requires sustainable development strategies, community engagement, and social protection programs.

• Adaptation and Resilience: requires enhanced climate monitoring, early warning systems, and emergency preparedness. Improved weather forecasting systems and monitoring networks enable prediction of extreme weather events. Establishing early warning systems and emergency response plans, including evacuation procedures and relief distribution, ensures timely response. Strengthening infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and buildings, and educating local communities on La Niña’s impacts and preparedness measures are crucial.

• Sustainable resource management: This includes efficient use of water resources, renewable energy sources, and eco-friendly agricultural practices. By adopting sustainable resource management, Kashmir can reduce its carbon footprint, minimize waste, and promote environmental conservation. Furthermore, sustainable life measures, such as reducing energy consumption, using public transport, and promoting eco-tourism, can significantly contribute to mitigating the effects of climate change

Conclusion

In conclusion, La Niña’s impact on Kashmir highlights the region’s vulnerability to climate change. This phenomenon affects temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events, making it essential to develop proactive adaptation strategies. Understanding the dynamics of the La Niña Effect is crucial for creating effective measures to mitigate its impacts.

To adapt effectively, it’s important to address climate-related challenges such as water scarcity, economic instability, and social issues. International cooperation, sustainable development strategies, and community-based initiatives are vital for this process. By recognizing these complexities, Kashmir can build resilience and promote sustainable development. This includes enhancing climate monitoring, developing early warning systems, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices.

Ultimately, La Niña’s influence on Kashmir acts as a catalyst for climate action. By collaborating, policymakers, researchers, and communities can create a climate-resilient future that ensures the well-being of both the people and ecosystems of Kashmir. This effort requires collaborative approaches, innovative solutions, and a commitment to sustainable development, ultimately leading to a brighter and more resilient future for the region.

• SHEELU KUMARI

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